Wednesday, 27 December 2017

Bias

Cognitive Bias - this is when a person does not believe that an outcome is likely to happen; because it has already happened several times in the past.
This is a fallacy because  a random event may have occurred several times in the past. But this does not negate its chances of occurring in the future.

Example. Just because a gambler has won a game of cards 3 times in a row does not mean he will win the 4th time. His chances are still 50 - 50. Cognitive bias is also called Gamblers' Fallacy.

Hindsight Bias - After the occurrence of an event, we tell ourselves and possibly others that we could have predicted the event. We probably may not have been able to predict it.

Example. The breakup of a relationship - we think that there were ample indications since the very beginning pointing towards the break-up.

Researcher Bias: This happens when a researcher's opinion leans towards a particular outcome and this subjectively affects the results of an experiment.  This may or may not be a conscious process.

Example. A research may firmly believe in that Homeopathy is placebo and may consciously or unconsciously convey his/her views to the participants.

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